The UAE is the Best Place to be as Winter Meets Omicron

Winter has ignited new Covid-19 waves across major Western economies, becoming a key differentiator of the best and worst places to be during the pandemic just as a new variant emerges with the potential to reverse global moves to reopen.

Omicron has landed at an inopportune time for the northern hemisphere, as colder weather sends people indoors, fueling caseloads and triggering fresh restrictions in some places.

After dominating the top rungs of Bloomberg’s Covid Resilience Ranking for months, Europe has largely been dethroned with the United Arab Emirates—one of the most consistent performers since the Ranking’s inception a year ago—becoming our new No. 1. Daily cases have stayed below a hundred a day since mid-October in the UAE, deaths are rare and it’s one of the most vaccinated places in the world with over 200 doses per 100 people.

European nations account for eight of the biggest drops this month, led by Austria which plummets 31 places after it became the first on the continent to re-enter a national lockdown. Ireland, the top performer in September and October, slid three spots to No. 4. Chile and Finland rank second and third: both nations boast high vaccination rates and are opening up to visitors, with a strong economic recovery expected in Chile in particular as it enters its summer period. While Finland’s infections are also rising like the rest of Europe, its winter outbreak is still relatively small.

Omicron may change that. While there is still much to be learned about how fast the new strain spreads and whether it’s able to evade existing vaccines, it’s already stalled—and in a few places, reversed—reopening efforts in the final days of November. Israel and Japan blocked entry to all foreigners, as a slew of other countries cut off travel from southern Africa, weighing on their scores.

The Covid Resilience Ranking is a monthly snapshot of where the virus is being handled the most effectively with the least social and economic upheaval. Compiled using 12 data indicators that span virus containment, quality of healthcare, vaccination coverage, overall mortality and progress toward restarting travel, the Ranking captures how the world’s biggest 53 economies are responding to the same once-in-a-generation threat.

Not all northern hemisphere countries are seeing winter disruptions—yet. The U.S. jumps 13 spots to No. 13 in November as it sees a respite from a delta-variant wave and after it moved to reopen borders fully to vaccinated people. The U.K. also improved, rising 13 places to 12th as fatalities stayed low and the government promises Britons a Christmas without lockdown. Still, cases are trending up again in some areas and the U.S., in particular, is struggling with a stagnant vaccination rate, raising the risk of a reversion to curbs on people’s movements.

The past three months have been distinguished by a strong global pivot toward reopening and normalizing economies, after two years of pandemic stasis. India vaulted up 19 spots to No. 26 in November, returning to the top half of the Ranking for the first time since the nation’s devastating delta outbreak earlier this year. Borders have been opened to vaccinated foreign tourists, and a feared third wave has not yet materialized, though India’s relatively sluggish vaccination campaign remains a major vulnerability.

Southeast Asia continues to populate the bottom of the Ranking, with the Philippines remaining in last place, followed by Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. The lowest two places on the Ranking have given out less than 100 Covid shots per 100 people, a key barrier to improving their scores.

The perverse consequences of global vaccine inequality has only been underscored by omicron’s emergence, something that scientists and the World Health Organization warned would happen—and will keep happening—until the developing world is able to more efficiently access and administer shots. South Africa drops seven spots as other countries cut off travel access to the first country which sequenced the new variant and where it appears to be spreading the fastest. Cases and positive test rates are also on the rise while vaccination is still only at 43 doses per 100 people.

Former Covid-Zero proponents remain lower ranked in November, with Australia 33th, New Zealand at No. 36 and Singapore 37th as they slowly reopen once shuttered borders but still lag the rest of the world on reigniting travel. Internal restrictions on movement and activities like dining out abide in some cases.

As we head into the last month of 2021, all eyes will be on whether northern-hemisphere countries can get through winter without a full reversion to economically crippling lockdowns. Will omicron turn the clock back on the pandemic, or does the advent of Covid pills and booster shots light a permanent exit path?

These questions will be the focus of the Ranking as we move into December.

Notable Movers

Big shifts upward in November:

• Iraq jumps 21 spots after community mobility surged and domestic life normalized. Schools also resumed in-person classes.

• India and Bangladesh ascend no fewer than 18 places after both allowed most vaccinated travelers to visit without quarantine, boosting flight capacity and local movement.

• Argentina climbs 17 spots after the nation lifted travel restrictions, welcoming vaccinated travelers starting November.

• Turkey rises 13 places into the top six after it relaxed some social distancing rules and more provinces were moved out of the high-risk category.

• Taiwan advances 12 rungs after it laid out plans to ease some travel rules. The island’s vaccination drive—a key reason behind its lackluster Ranking performance in the second half—has now covered 77% of its population with at least one dose, though the fully vaccinated rate is still at 53%.

And down:

• Czech Republic and Poland fall 26 and 16 spots respectively as both places see new surges while trying to avoid re-imposing lockdowns.

• Netherlands slips 20 notches after entering a partial lockdown to slow a jump in cases, sparking street protests.

• Germany tumbles 19 rungs as a winter wave—one Chancellor Angela Merkel said is worse than anything the country has experienced so far—gathers pace. Health officials haven’t ruled out a return to lockdowns like neighbor Austria.

• Switzerland falls 16 spots due to rising infections, with government health experts expecting the situation to worsen.

• Greece sinks 11 positions as cases are rising. The government is restricting activities for the unvaccinated and ordered private-sector doctors to work for the national health system. Flight capacity and community mobility worsened from a month ago.

Covid Lessons

It’s been a year since we debuted Bloomberg’s Covid Resilience Ranking in November 2020. While merely a snapshot in time amid a fast-moving crisis, it has through over twelve editions helped crystallize some longer-term lessons from the pandemic.

One thing is clear: past performance in tackling the pandemic is no guarantee of future success—or failure. Countries have been stymied again and again by the vagaries of the biggest health crisis in a generation, but some have also found ways to turn devastating situations around, whether through science, social cohesion or simply learning from the past.

Over the past year, only seven countries never fell into the bottom half of the Ranking even as the pandemic shape-shifted. Norway, Denmark, Finland, this month’s No. 1 the UAE, Canada, South Korea and Switzerland were the pandemic’s equivalent of season MVPs: whether in containing the virus’ spread, rolling out vaccination, fighting delta or reopening the economy, they consistently scored above average.

Strong healthcare safety nets and societal cohesion are common denominators among the seven, qualities that advantaged them at every stage of the pandemic. Faith in government and a willingness to follow rules helped with containing the virus, while these countries’ relative wealth meant they had the buying power to snap up the first supplies of vaccines.

Investment in public health infrastructure also matters. Undervalued in many places before 2020, systems for contact tracing, effective testing and health education bolstered the countries that have performed consistently well in the Ranking, helping socialize hand-washing and the wearing of face masks. This was key to avoiding economically crippling lockdowns in the first year before vaccines were available.

Though wealthy nations that bet on vaccination are now seeing that strategy pay off, their failure to check the coronavirus leaves a deep scar, with more than 777,000 people dead from Covid in the U.S. and some survivors grappling with debilitating after-effects. It also meant the world missed out on an opportunity to eliminate the virus.

The arrival of vaccines, which have helped curb fatalities, has been a silver lining, and highlighted the importance of funding healthcare research and development.

To capture which of the 53 economies are nailing reopening—an aspect of pandemic management that’s increasingly pivotal—we zero in on their progress on vaccination, the severity of the lockdowns and restrictions in place, plus two metrics tracking travel that were introduced in June. They form a gauge that assesses how far each place is from pre-Covid levels of normalcy.

Despite this focus on reopening, indicators that have always been part of the Resilience Ranking remain, with all 12 data points equally weighted. The Covid Status tab includes two death-related indicators: the case-fatality rate over the past three months and a measure of overall mortality through the whole pandemic. This means the U.S. has the highest recorded death toll globally still contributes to its current score.

The scores of the top-ranked places generally reflect a best-case scenario of high vaccination rates, relatively controlled case and death levels, flight capacity recovering to pre-pandemic levels, and few travel curbs on vaccinated people.

November’s No.1, the UAE has basically normalized back to pre-pandemic life: Property sales are at a decade high in its largest city of Dubai, restaurants are full, and the Expo—which is running until March—has attracted two million visitors since it started in October.

In the previous months, European economies scored most highly on the Vaccinated Travel Routes indicator as they’ve moved the quickest to allow quarantine-free entry for inoculated visitors. Now almost all major economies, including the U.S., India, Canada and Argentina, have joined them.

As a result, the reopening gulf between sealed-off places and the rest of the world is widening. Parts of the Asia-Pacific that had success last year with walling out and eliminating Covid with strict border curbs and quarantines—delivering much lower death tolls—score poorly on reopening. Among the ten places in the Ranking that continue to block most foreign tourists, eight are in the Asia-Pacific, including mainland China and Hong Kong, the remaining Covid-Zero holdouts.

Despite fully inoculating about 77% of its 1.4 billion population, China’s international borders remain effectively closed. Small virus flareups have seen localized travel restrictions and targeted but intense containment measures, but the country still scores well on Flight Capacity recovery because of its large internal market.

Elsewhere, isolation is no longer an option. In Indonesia and Thailand, authorities are pursuing a flurry of plans to welcome vaccinated travelers by relaxing or scrapping quarantine requirements for tourist hotspots. Singapore, Australia and New Zealand have pivoted away from Covid-Zero strategies and are relaxing border restrictions in phases.

The numbers provided by aviation data specialist OAG do reward larger economies where domestic flights have made up for the absence of global travel. Conversely, small, travel-reliant economies like Hong Kong and Singapore, which don’t have local aviation markets, score among the worst.

The Two-Track Pandemic

Vaccination is where places like Europe and the U.S. make up for their missteps in the initial stage of containing Covid. Before this winter, their positions in the Ranking improved around early summer—the U.S. was No. 1 in June—as an investment in research and a focus on fast rollouts proved pivotal. Operation Warp Speed saw some $18 billion ploughed into developing some of the most effective Covid vaccines now being administered around the world.

Economies that moved early to secure and roll out shots have the advantage of being mostly inoculated with mRNA vaccines, which appear to not just prevent a person from developing Covid, but lower their chances of contracting and transmitting it as well. But with most vaccines proving somewhat less effective against delta and evidence emerging that immunity wanes six months after inoculation, vaccination leaders like Israel saw record surges and moved on boosters to drive down the cases.

Israel rises 10 spots this month to No. 19 as its third-dose campaign brought the resurgence in infections under control, a turnaround from its poor showing through the summer and fall when delta defied weakening immunity levels. The country’s cyclical swings through the Ranking foreshadows the volatility major Western economies are likely to see as well as they continue to rely on more and more inoculation instead of containment measures.

Still, much of the developing world is yet to even start inoculating in a meaningful way, with countries lacking the purchasing power to forge deals that could push them higher up the queue. Covax, the WHO-backed effort to help poorer nations procure doses, started distributing shots at the end of February but has faced a supply shortfall that’s seen many places run out of vaccines entirely. Logistics is also an issue for many poorer nations.

In September, President Joe Biden called on other countries to help vastly expand the production and availability of Covid vaccines and treatments, donating another 500 million doses to nearly double the U.S.’ pledge. After hoarding supplies in the first half of the year, the U.S. has donated more vaccines than any other country, according to UNICEF data.

China, while only donating 119 million doses, has exported about 1.2 billion of its homegrown shots via mostly bilateral deals with places like Brazil, Indonesia and Chile. The country also pledged to supply a billion doses of shots for Africa.

The arrival of winter waves may further deteriorate the inequality in the distribution of this vital resource, with countries like Germany already delaying some donations to Covax to ensure sufficient supply for its domestic booster program.

What Next?

Bloomberg’s Covid Resilience Ranking provides a snapshot of how the pandemic is playing out in 53 major economies right now. By layering in metrics on reopening and the revival of global travel from mid-2021, we also give a window into how these economies’ fortunes may shift in the future as places exit the pandemic at different speeds.

It’s not a final verdict—it never could be, given the imperfections in virus and vaccine data and the fast pace of this crisis. Circumstance and pure luck also play a role but are hard to quantify.

Omicron may realize one of the scientists’ biggest fears, that of variants that can overcome existing shots and drive a new phase of the pandemic.

Still, having endured about two years of fighting Covid-19, governments and populations now have a better understanding of the pathogen and how to mitigate the damage it inflicts.

As the data shift, the Ranking will change too—we’ll continue to update the picture every month, as it evolves.