Dubai remains open to UK flights but for how long?

As countries across the world impose bans on UK travel links amid fears of a new COVID-19 strain, experts say the UAE is likely to follow suit, but it might be one of the last to do so.

The infectious coronavirus mutation which has taken hold in London and parts of southeast England is causing global panic, leading to over 40 countries suspending flights to and from the UK, including Kuwait, Jordan, and Turkey. Saudi Arabia and Oman have also banned all international flights.

Britons are now subject to strict travel guidelines, which could impact traffic levels to the UAE, according to Olivier Ponti, VP Insights at ForwardKeys.

Despite initial optimum for the UK-UAE air traffic route in the first half of November, when the UAE was added to the UK’s list of quarantine-free countries and flight bookings rose to over 50 percent of the levels in the equivalent period in 2019, Ponti said the impending outlook is challenging.

“The dramatic news emanating from the UK over the weekend – of a more transmissible strain of Covid-19 and the immediate imposition of stringent travel restrictions on UK residents by the UK and by other countries – has changed everything,” Ponti said.

“While it will take a few days for the most relevant data to percolate through, I regret that what was optimism is now pessimism.”

Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at London-based aviation consultancy StrategicAero Research, said the UAE is likely to “wait until the last possible moment to ban UK travellers, following updates from the UK government about how the situation is being managed given its continued changes.”

“If the UAE does ban UK flights, while Emirates and Etihad would no doubt lose significant traffic given the recent air corridor opening just last month, they are still able to temper and redeploy capacity to other markets,” Ahmad said, “For BA, it will be devastating, because we’ve already seen upwards of 40 countries ban UK flights – nearly all of which BA flies to.”

Since grounding its entire fleet in late March due to the global coronavirus lockdown, Emirates has gradually announced flights to soak up increased demand. Emirates increased its twice-daily Dubai-London A380 and once daily Boeing 777 flights to four daily A380 services from 27 November.

Dubai’s tourism industry, like many major cities around the world, has suffered from collapsed consumer demand amid the coronavirus pandemic, flight restrictions and international quarantine measures.

Euromonitor International forecasted in September that overall visitor arrivals from the UK to UAE are expected to decline by 69 percent in 2020.

Other countries in the Middle East moved to shutter borders on Monday amid fears over the fast-spreading new strain of the coronavirus that the UK has said is “out of control.”

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman halted international flights and closed borders for a week, while Israel won’t allow foreigners - with the exception of diplomats - to enter the country. Israelis returning from the UK, Denmark and South Africa will be sent to government-run quarantine sites.

Etihad Airways temporally halted flights with the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman effective immediately to “curb the spread” of the virus, state-run WAM reported.

An Etihad spokesperson said: "The safety of our customers and crew is Etihad's highest priority and we regret any inconvenience the suspension may cause. We will work closely with impacted guests to notify them of the suspension and help them rearrange their travel plans."

Etihad said it’d require all passengers from the UK to present a negative PCR test within 72 hours validity of their flight departure from December 24.

While the Abu Dhabi Emergency Crisis and Disaster Committee for the Covid-19 pandemic has outlined quarantine guidelines for international arrivals to the UAE capital, which includes: a PCR test to be taken on arrival, followed by which passengers must register under the quarantine system and be provided with a wrist band which must be worn for a two-week period; quarantine can be undertaken at home, in a hotel or in accommodation provided by medical authorities; a second PCR test must be taken after 12 days; if this is negative, 14 days after arriving in Abu Dhabi, the wristband can be removed and the quarantine period can end.

Passengers must also download the Al Hosn app and wear face masks and gloves while in the airport.

A statement on the Abu Dhabi Airports website said: “These measures have been implemented to ensure everyone’s health, safety and wellbeing. We urge you to closely adhere to these procedures. Violating them will result in penalties and fines issued by the government of Abu Dhabi.”

All major stock indexes in the region dropped, in line with global markets. Dubai’s main equities index led the losses, slumping the most in more than seven months, on concerns that additional travel curbs may inflict further damage on the emirate’s tourism sector.

In Africa, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria halted all flights to and from the UK. Tunisia also suspended flights to and from Australia and South Africa. Sudan banned inbound flights from UK., Holland and South Africa.

Sharjah-based Air Arabia said on Monday it will halt flights from Morocco to the UK until further notice.